SUPERPOWER INDIA: Don't just talk, ACT LIKE ONE!

This is an excerpt from the op-ed section of the daily Deccan Chronicle newspaper dated 9th January, 2009, written by Vice-Admiral Arun Kumar Singh (retired as Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command, Vishakapatnam)

THE SERIES of events after 26/11(including the January 1 Guwahati bomb blasts) have left no one in any doubt about a few facts. Any naval specialist will agree that the manner in which the 10 terrorists attacked Mumbai, including the transit in the Indian fishing boat Kuber, could only be possible with the involvement of the ISI, the Pakistani Army and Navy. There is an urgent need for certain regulations to be implemented in full force, since the roller coaster-initial "vehement denial" followed by "Yes, Kasav is Pakistani", ISI leaflets given to Pakistani Army about dismembering India by 2020 - indicate that Pakistan does not have peace on its mind. Poonch firefighting indicates the shape of things to come from the "epicentre of terrorism" aka Pakistan.
The manner in which the Pakistan military, hell-bent on destabilizing and dismembering India, took over the decision making process from the President Asif Ali Zardari and his nascent government to win public support for the discredited military and from the terrorists to "defend Pakistan" in case of war, has left no one in doubt that the Pakistani Army Chief, General Ashraf Parvez Kayani, is the decision-maker in that troubled land with the Pakistani government acting as his spokesperson. Indeed, temperatures went up last month when Gen. Kayani said "Pakistan will act in minutes", and things cooled down only when, on Dec 29th, he said "There is a need to de-escalate" Why did Gen Kayani raise the war hysteria pitch to such levels, and why did the media report that the Pakistani Army has withdrawn troops from the Afghan border? The answer may not be too difficult. Unlike India, where the Indian military has been denied hardware viz the Comptroller and Audit General(CAG) report of Oct 24, 208 showing gaping holes in air defence, submarine force levels etc. The Pakistan military machine on the other hand, has been kept well-oiled with the $10 billion in aid received in the last seven years. It is, indeed, amazing that Pakistan despite being totally bankrupt has managed a $8 BILLION IMF loan, asked for a $60 billion "grant" to boost its economy, is acquiring three German-type 214 submarines, co-producing 150 Chinese FC-17 light fighter jets, inducting 36 Chinese FC-20(J-10) heavy fighter jets, three Chinese frigates, Swedish and Chinese AWACs, F-16 fighter jets, artillery and Brazilian SAMs.Buoyed by the "success" of the 10-man terrorist strike on 26/11, and emboldened by the "civilized and diplomatic" response of the Indian government and international community (the US is planning to give Pakistan another $15 billion, God knows how could that be possible!!), the Pakistan military, ISI and various terrorist outfits would be planning more devastating attacks in the near future. These attacks could be form the sea, air or land, or a combination which would aim to saturate India's response mechanism, cause maximum damage and pull us into the "failed state quagmire" of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

So how does India prepare for this "doomsday" scenario? The answers are equally complex. The government has taken a few punitive steps by introducing the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and making the 1967 Act stiffer. A few other highly publicized steps are on the anvil. However, preventing future attacks will require a series if urgent and transparent steps. In addition to deporting the estimated 25 million Bangladeshis, and introducing a proposed single accountable window, a homeland security adviser, electronic data link and bank, it is essential to introduce accountability in the bureaucracy. The same needs to be done with so many non-performing DRDO projects which have consumed thousands of crores of rupees and still left the nation with no option but to import hardware - even the DRDO electronic transponders for fishing boats have been "on the anvil" for over three years. It is hoped that past bureaucratic delays are not repeated and the nation gets the hardware and the man-power needed to deal with terrorism.

The government needs to promulgate by Jan 31 a list of organisational changes (including single window accountability), along with manpower and hardware which have received financial approval for a time-bound completion, particularly with regard to intelligence, police, industrial and nuclear plants' security, maritime security(port, coastal and blue water), artillery, night vision devices, radar cover, air defence and strategic deterrent. The dragon entered our "porous blue water backyard" when the Chinese Navy dispatched two destroyers and a logistics ship on December 29, 2008 for a prolonged anti-piracy deployment in the Gulf of Aden. No doubt these Chinese warships will now use the Gwadar port(which China built and gifted it to Pakistan) for 'operational turnaround" of its warships and submarines.The Chinese naval presence will further embolden Pakistan and the security implications of this "blue water" capability, augmenting the current asymmetric "brown water" coastal threat to India, need to be understood by the Indian Government. While coastal security measures are finally on the front burner, the only antidote to Chinese blue water capability would be Indian nuclear hunter killer submarines (SSNs) and Long-Range Maritime Patrol Aircraft(LRMP of the recently contracted Boeing P8i type). Four SSNs would need to be inducted on priority.

The next few weeks will be critical as India gears up for national elections and the political leadership may need to remind itself that the security of the nation is paramount. In addition to raising the military's morale, India must prepare contingency plans for the "almost inevitable" terror strikes in future. Our options are, perhaps, limited to initiating prolonged covert strikes(by "non-state actors") against "official and unofficial" terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Bangladesh(i.e reversing Pakistan's policy of "death by a thousand cuts"). Diplomatic pressure alone is not expected to provide early results given Pakistan's geo-strategic location and multiple power centres. The option of withdrawing the Indus Water Treaty is a non starter since China will then have a precedent to divert its rivers from flowing into Assam and Himachal Pradesh. Similarly, the talk of a "naval blockade" shows ignorance of the fact that such a blockade(like a surgical strikes) is a declaration of war.

The time will soon come for India to "stop talking" and start acting like an emerging superpower of one billion people, "exercise the covert option" and not expect other nations to provide security to our citizens. And if a combination of diplomatic and covert operations fail to eliminate terror networks in Pakistan and Bangladesh, THEN INDIA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WAR....

JAI HIND!!